Economic Model

Economic Model:

A model is a simplified representation of a real situation.A model implies abstraction from reality which is achieved by a set of meaningful and consistent assumptions,which aim at the simplification of the phenomenon that the model is designed to study. Abstraction does not imply unrealism, but is a simplification of reality.


Economic theory aims at the construction of models which describe the economic behavior of individual units and their interactions which create the economic system of a region.

There are two main purposes for which a model is built -
1.Analysis- implies the explanation of the behavior of economic units, consumers or producers.
2.Prediction-implies the possibility of forecasting the effects of changes in some magnitudes in the economy.
The validity of a model may be judge on several criteria. It's predictive power, the consistency and realism of its assumptions, simplicity.

Milton Friedman- Predictive performance is more important
Paul Samuelson- realism of assumptions and power of the model in explaining the behavior of economic agents, is the most important.

 what is the most important attribute of a model depends on its purpose, the use to which one puts the model.
Predictive performance is important when the purpose of the model is forecasting the effects of a certain change in a variable.
Realism of assumptions and explanatory power are important features of a model if the purpose of the model is the explanation of why a system behaves as it does. Ideally a model should fulfill both criteria.

Reference;
1.A. Koutsoyiannis, Modern Microeconomics

What is "Care GDP"?Homemaker women's wages can be considered or not?

Anurag Educational Academy

Care GDP:

"Outcomes generated by the housewives during the caring of her family, which is not included(underestimated) in the real(estimated on Base Year Price) or nominal(calculated on the Current Market Price) terms of the GDP,called care GDP."

Sympathy With Housewives/Homemaker or with "Mothers"

Just think that our mothers follow their duties(like; caring children,cooking, cleaning, laundry works, domestic budget management and so many) to make us cheerful in  24Х7Х365 (Hours/Days/Years) .She plays a central role in every house and It hardly seems fair that so central a role be unpaid, with only our love as reward. Economists consider that thought it is unpaid, the family work done by housewives constitute an economic activity in the terms of services,which should include in the country's National Income.

Data Point

Miss World,2017 Manushi Chhillar contends that mothers deserve the highest salary in  the world, actually the house work done by the women are neither acknowledge as work nor do they get paid.
In India,According to National Sample Survey Organization(NSSO) report around 64% of urban women are engaged in domestic work compared to 60% in rural areas among women aged 15 and above, they did so because there was "no other member to carry out domestic duties".In both rural and urban regions,about 92% women spent most of their times on domestic work.
A study by The U.S. Department Of Commerce's Bureau Of Economic Analysis found that if household production of services was included in calculating GDP,it would have added💲3.8 trillion in the U.S. Economy in 2010.

Estimation:

But the question is how to measure accurately the money value of housewives production of services?
There can be calculate in three ways:

1.In the terms of Opportunity Cost: If housewives looking for any job in the market and got a job with well salaried  but due to their family duties and responsibilities she left that, that would be the opportunity cost of job from which housewives could generate income and this income has to include in country's GDP. So if we calculate the opportunity cost of job and pay to mothers that would be the money value of services produced by housewives.
2.In the terms of Market Price: Suppose those services which is provided to us by our mothers free of cost if we have to purchase these services from market like; we have to pay to sweeper for cleaning the house,to washer man for washing the cloth,to a made for cooking food and so on. The sum of these payments are the income or wages of housewives.
3.Arbitrary: Assumed any number which should pay to housewives like; 3,000/month or any.


Challenges:
There is a lot of challenges to calculate the money value of housewife's generated services. In the first method, there are varieties of jobs and different salaries for them for housewives in the market(like; from a top level company CEO to a receptionist). In second method,the market value of different services at different place may constitute error in calculation and in the last way,it is unrealistic because there are some nuclear family housewives and some are joint family housewives,we can't take to all under a roof.

Conclusion:
Of course it is a challenge to determine the wages of housewives yet we can't ignore the services which do produce in the economy but not included in the GDP. It became more important when noble laureate Amartya Sen advocates the mother's wage.If it is done,GDP number will increase and present the actual number as well as the family work done by  housewives would be considered meaningful.

चीन और भारत को ही UNCTAD ने क्यों चिन्हित किया ?

UNCTAD in the UN System

UNCTAD(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ) is a permanent intergovernmental body established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1964. 

Headquarters- Geneva, Switzerland

Member Countries- 194

FUNCTIONS

 1. To promote international trade with a view to accelerating economic development.

 2. To formulate principles and policies on international trade and related problems of economic development.

3. To negotiate multinational trade agreements.

4.  To make proposals for putting its principles and polices into effect.

संयुक्त राष्ट्र की संस्था UNCTAD ने कहा है कि कोरोना संकट के चलते विश्व अर्थव्यवस्था पर भारी संकट आएगा, लेकिन चीन इससे बचा रहगा और भारत के भी बचने की संभावना है।

चीन इससे क्यों बचा रहेगा?

कोरोना संकट चीन में प्रारम्भ होने के बावजूद वहाँ घरेलू उड़ानों में वृद्धि हुई है, मेट्रो में यात्रा बढ़ी है, तमाम फैक्ट्रियाँ चालू हो गयी हैं। चीन ने कोरोना से निपटने के लिए निम्न कदम उठाए-

1. संक्रमित लोगों की पहचान के लिए जो किट चाहिए उसे पर्याप्त मात्रा में उपलब्ध करा दिया। इससे संक्रमितों की पहचान और उसके बाद उन्हें ट्रैक अथवा क्वारन्टाइन करना संभव होगा।

 

2   चीन ने वुहान शहर और हुबे प्रान्त को जल्द लॉकडाउन किया जिससे संक्रमण अन्य राज्यों में नहीं पहुँच सका।

3   चीन ने कुछ संस्थाओं को पुऩः खोलने की छूट दी, लेकिन उनके प्रत्येक कर्मी को एक क्यूआर कोड दिया गया जिससे उन्हें ट्रैक किया जा सके और वह अपने स्वास्थ को स्वयं जान सके तथा केन्द्रीय डाटा सेंटर को सूचना दे सके कि वे स्वस्थ हैं। इससे फैक्ट्रियों में संक्रमित लोगों के कार्य करने एवं संक्रमण बढ़ने की सम्भावना शून्य प्राय हो गयी।

4.  चीन में स्वास्थ्य कर्मियों को जरुरी रक्षात्मक उपकरण जैसे-मास्क आदि पर्याप्त मात्रा में उपलब्ध कराये गये।

5. चीन सरकार ने जनता को सूचित किया कि कहाँ संक्रमण है और कहाँ आने-जाने की छूट है।

14 अप्रैल के बाद यदि सरकार लॉकडाउन को खोलती है तो पुऩः संक्रमण को फैलने की आशंका को रोकने के लिए सरकार को चाहिए कि

1.   हर राज्य का अलग-अलग मूल्यांकन करे।

2    जिन राज्यों में प्रशासन चुस्त है और जहाँ संक्रमण फैलने की रफ्तार धीमी है उन राज्यों में कृत्रिम सरहद बना कर बाहर के लोगों का प्रवेश रोक देना चाहिए और उन्हें आर्थिक गतिविधियों की छूट दे देनी चाहिए।

3.   सरकार को चाहिए कि संक्रमित लोगों को ट्रैक करें जिसके लिए पुलिस और स्वास्थ्य कर्मियों को छोड़कर अन्य समस्त कर्मचारियों के आदेश दें कि वे अपने निकटतम प्राइमरी हेल्थ सेंटर में उपस्थित हों। इन्हें हर मोहल्ले या सड़क पर नियुक्त कर देना चाहिए कि वे उस क्षेत्र में संक्रमित लोगों की जाँच और पहचान करें। उन्हें ट्रैक करें।

4.   सरकार को प्रतिदिन एक आधिकारिक सूचना सरकारी टेलिविजन पर जारी करनी चाहिए जिसमें देश में कोरोना की स्थिति की जानकारी दी जाए। यही काम राज्य सरकारों को भी करना चाहिए। (न्यूयार्क के गवर्नर प्रतिदिन टी0वी0 पर आकर विस्तार से बताते हैं कि कितने रोगी हैं, कितने डॉक्टर संक्रमित हुए हैं, अस्पतालों मे कितनी क्षमता है?

5.  जाँच किट और सुरक्षा उपकरणों के उत्पादन के लिए सरकार उद्योगों के साथ समझौता करके तत्काल उन्हें बनाने को कहे।

चीन और भारत को ही UNCTAD ने क्यों चिन्हित किया ?

1.65 वर्ष के ऊपर की आयु की जनसंख्या भारत में 6% और चीन में 11% हैं जबकि फ्रांस, इटली, इंग्लैंड और अमेरिका में यह 15-23% है। जनसंख्या के युवा होने से कोरोना का संक्रमण कम होने की संभावना रहती है।

2. भारत ,चीन की विश्व व्यापार पर निर्भरता कम है। फ्रांस, इटली और स्पेन की अधिक है। विश्व व्यापार पर निर्भरता होने से अन्य देशों का आर्थिक संकट अपने ऊपर तत्काल आ जाता है। चीन दूसरे देशों को भारी निर्यात करता है, परन्तु अपनी जरुरतों के लिए उनपर कम ही निर्भर है।

3     भारत और चीन बड़े देश हैं इन देशों में लगभग हर प्रकार की जलवायु व उद्योग हैं। चूंकि यह अपने जरुरत के माल को स्वयं बना सकते हैं इसलिए वे दूसरे देशों के संकट से कम प्रभावित होंगे।

4    चीन और भारत की बचत दर ज्यादा है चीन की बचत दर 47% और भारत की 30% है , जबकि बाकि यूरोपिय देशों की बचत दर कम है। बचत दर का अर्थ यह हुआ कि हमारे परिवारों के पास आर्थिक रक्षा का कवच उनकी तुलना में अधिक है । अमेरिका के नागरिक कर्ज लेकर खपत करने के आदि हो गये हैं,जबकि यह भारत में उतना नहीं है।

1.भारत को विश्व व्यापार पर अपनी निर्भरता घटानी चाहिए जैसी फिलहाल है और यदि संभव हो तो इसे और कम करना चाहिए।

2. अपनी घरेलू बचत दर बढ़ानी चाहिए।

3. आर्थिक विकास को हासिल करने के लिए जनता को अधिकाअधिक खपत करने के लिए प्रोत्साहित करने के स्थान पर जनता को बचत करने के लिए प्रोत्साहन देना चाहिए। जिससे हमारा आर्थिक सुरक्षा का कवच बना रहे।

हमें समझना होगा कि चीन ने कोरोना संकट का सामना किस प्रकार किया ।किचड़ में कमल खिला हो तो उसे ले लेना चाहिए।

Thankyou...
Anurag Educational Academy

About ICMR

About ICMR:

 The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), New Delhi, the apex body in India for the formulation, coordination and promotion of biomedical research, is one of the oldest medical research bodies in the world.

 ICMR’s research agenda align with the National health priorities. These efforts are undertaken with a view to reduce the total burden of disease and to promote health and well-being of the population. ICMR promotes biomedical research in the country through intramural as well as extramural research.

New Delhi, March 13, 2020: Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the apex health research body of India has successfully isolated the COVID-19 virus strain. The isolation is the first step towards expediting the development of drugs, vaccines and rapid diagnostic kits in the country. The other countries that have isolated the virus are Japan, Thailand, United States of America and China. ICMR has been closely working with the Ministry of Health, and other departments to coordinate the effort to tackle COVID-19.

ICMR, which is also the testing agency for the virus, has expanded its network of labs equipped to test COVID-19 from 51 to 65. The secondary test for reconfirmation of the virus which was earlier conducted only in National Institute of Virology have also been expanded to 31 labs. These steps will enable India to expedite detection of the virus and will help in effective management.

Till date ICMR has tested more than 6500 samples of 5900 individuals, out of which 78 cases have been tested positive for the virus. ICMR is equipped to handle more volumes of samples if the need arises.

Prof (Dr) Balram Bhargava, Secretary, Department of Health Research & Director General, ICMR, said “People should not panic, but take precautionary measures. Strong systems and processes are in place to deal with COVID-19 and the Ministry is constantly monitoring the situation. We at ICMR have been constantly in a vigil mode and our laboratories have enough capacity to test. We will be issuing advisories and revising guidelines for testing as and when necessary.” In a query regarding ongoing paranoia about what to eat or not Eat, DG, ICMR said eating non-veg (chicken or eggs) is not related to COVID-19.

Concept of "India VIX"

Concept of "India VIX"

Why do we have a VIX index?

India VIX index is not the first of its kind in the world.

 

The VIX index was first created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and introduced in 1993 based on the prices of S&P 500 index.

Since then, it has become a globally- recognised gauge of volatility in the U.S equity markets. The India VIX was launched with a similar intent in 2010 and is based on the computation methodology of CBOE though amended to align with the Indian markets.

                     

Concept of "India VIX"

              

What is volatility?

Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements, both up and down, that a financial instrument experiences over a certain period of time. The more dramatic the price swings in that instrument, the higher the level of volatility. Volatility can be measured using actual historical price changes (realized volatility) or it can be a measure of expected future volatility that is implied by option prices. The VIX Index is a measure of expected future volatility.

• While derivatives contracts were also launched on India VIX, those never really registered any significant volume.
• Incidentally, the VIX value is among the important parameters that are taken into account for pricing of options contracts, which are one of the most popular derivative instruments

How is VIX index behaving currently?

In the current calendar year, the India VIX index has jumped fivefold, from around 12 levels to the current 67 levels, which clearly hints that the market perceives that volatility will only increase in the coming days.

Incidentally, the index is currently trading at record highs and on some days in the recent past, saw a surge of more than 20% in a single day.

The trend has been similar in CBOE VIX as well, having surged from below 15 levels in February to the current 67. It touched a high of 82 on March 16. Interestingly, given the nature of the index, it is also known as ‘fear gauge’ or ‘fear index’.